prediction markets, copyright, and desert snow

Wednesday, September 2, 2026

My sisters killed their husbands. I did not.

1. How well did the leading AI skeptic actually predict? Dan Luu goes through the receipts
2. Polymarket beats sportsbooks and polls by a factor of 3x in calibration
3. Western AI guardrails cause medical misdiagnoses in the Global South
4. Snow stretches from the Andes to the Pacific coast of the Atacama
5. New York City’s largest riot ever — triggered by a school medical exam
6. NYC’s pied-à-terre tax is a distraction from the actual fiscal crisis